Zhaojin Investment: steel prices will reach cost or will temporarily stabilize

Macroeconomic

Obama pushed for a new budget plan and increased tax revenue by 1.5 trillion U.S. dollars in 10 years. U.S. President Barack Obama announced a new deficit reduction plan on the 19th. According to figures released by the White House, Obama’s new plan will reduce the deficit of about 4.4 trillion U.S. dollars. In addition to a tax increase of US$1.5 trillion, the program also includes $1.2 trillion in unconditional spending cuts and a $1.1 trillion reduction in spending by withdrawing troops from Afghanistan and transforming their mission in Iraq. At the same time, the plan also proposes to cut 580 billion U.S. dollars in social welfare programs, including ****.

The power plant passively saves coal or causes winter electricity shortages: In several provincial coal mining provinces and coal transfers to provinces, it was discovered that the coal shortage has become more and more serious, the coal price has risen, and the inter-provincial coal transport is not smooth so that a considerable number of power plants will In the winter when coal shortages stop, the gap between electricity supply and demand increases. Some power generation enterprises from Hunan, Shanxi, and Guizhou learned that compared with the coal reserves that had been stored for more than 30 days in the coal storage phase of the previous winter, the enthusiasm of Yancoal, a power generation company, was not very high this year, and the number of coal storage days for many power plants was only About 10 days, this has brought great potential for the winter power shortage.

Industry fundamentals:

The domestic steel market continued to decline, construction steel fell across the board, and the hot-rolled steel market continued to decline: the domestic construction steel market maintained its overall decline. The average price of high-line Ф6.5mm in domestic key cities was 4,942 yuan (ton price, the same below), which was 33 yuan less than the previous day; the average price of Ф25mm rebar in domestic key cities was 4,814 yuan, which was 38 yuan less than the previous day. Beijing 6.5 high-line 4850 yuan fell 30 yuan, the secondary specifications of secondary rebar 4840 yuan fell 40 yuan; Shanghai market high line 4880 fell 40 yuan, rebar 4720 fell 30 yuan. All other markets have lost more than 30 yuan.

The domestic iron ore market fluctuates slightly: prices in the Hebei region have recovered slightly, and the Northeast and East China have stabilized. Recently, the market price of steel billets in the Tangshan area has fallen frequently, causing local steelmakers to intentionally lower the price of iron ore to a substantial downward adjustment. The mining companies are facing production pressure and their willingness to lower their selling prices is weak. At present, the weaker downward trend in the downstream market has intensified, making iron ore, which has always been in a contrarian direction, subject to certain influence. The recent iron ore market will form a high level of volatility and the downward trend in some regions will be highlighted. The price of 63.5% of domestic main port printing powder is about 1360 yuan. 63.5% of the price of printing ink outside the disk is 187-188 US dollars.

Technical side:

S & P lowered Italy's sovereign credit rating, the international financial market turbulence, domestic steel stocks rose in a row, and stocks have accelerated the upward trend, the domestic monetary policy tightened, all short-term moving average rebar has missed, rebar yesterday rebounded by the 5-day moving average , Average system back pressure, downward divergence, but the market outlook behind the cost should not be too pessimistic. The hot-rolled sheet breaks down, and the cost support is stronger than that of rebar. Baosteel, the mainstream steel company, stood behind the price and faced the previous low support. The rebound was stronger than that of rebar yesterday, or it will stop falling.

Operation suggestion:

With the advent of late September, no one in the market is still talking about the so-called "Jin 9" effect, and more is the expectation of a steady decline after the steelmaker's bid. On the macro level, the view that the domestic monetary tightening policy has not changed has already been communicated. At the same time, the slightly effective real estate control policy will also be strictly implemented in the short term. Various factors have become important factors affecting the decline in this market. Yesterday, S & P lowered Italy's rating to A, the European debt crisis further deepened, the trend of the outer disk is still not optimistic in the latter part, still has an impact on the domestic. At present, the price of hot coils touches the price and the operation is only known in the sky.