Dollar fell, continuous aluminum prices are expected to stabilize

Macro analysis: On January 7, the Japanese government announced that it will introduce fiscal stimulus measures of about 12 trillion yen in the additional budget for the current fiscal year ending in March of this year. Among them, public project expenditures exceed 5 trillion yen. Affected by the intensive and generous easing measures of the Bank of Japan, the yen exchange rate has been down.

Fundamental analysis: Since December, due to the impact of rain and snow since the winter, and aluminum prices have continued to slump, corporate profits have continued to decline. The operating rate of downstream processing companies is expected to remain low until the end of the year, and some companies have said that they will stop work early and the end of the year. The active enthusiasm for reserve stocks is not high, and more than 70% of the companies stated that they did not do inventory or reduce inventory, and they were optimistic about the outlook for the next year.

Spot analysis: Shanghai Aluminum fell slightly, dragging aluminum now to follow the downtrend. However, after New Year holiday recovery, the holding traders still have limited shipments. The support price is firm at RMB 15050/ton, which is lower than that of Shanghai Aluminum. Downstream and middlemen are after the holiday. The amount of transactions in the overall market was slightly increased.

Analysis of the board: On Monday, the Shanghai aluminum main 1303 contract opened lower and fell below 15300 support. Shanghai Aluminum's trading volume dropped again, and overall it continued to maintain low and low volume operations. Shanghai Aluminum's oversupply in the fundamentals did not change, but it was weak on the upside. London aluminum overnight rebounded, Shanghai aluminum is expected to open slightly higher today.

Operational recommendations: short-term wait-and-see, long-term more than a single line can be backed by 15200 first-line admission. Support level: 15200, pressure level: 15350.