Recently, the 2011 China Steel Market Outlook Seminar, co-sponsored by the Metallurgical Industry Economic Research Center and my steel network, led by government ministries, many eminent economists and policy makers in the steel industry, and elites in related industry chains. Taking "the evolution of the steel market under the economic restructuring" as the main line, from a different perspective, we will conduct a comprehensive and in-depth discussion and interpretation of the hot issues of the domestic steel market in 2011, which are highly concerned by the steel traders. . Overall, the environment and situation facing the domestic steel market in 2011 will be better than 2010, but the uncertain factors affecting the steel market still exist, which will bring new opportunities and challenges to the steel trade circulation industry. From the perspective of macroeconomic policy, steel demand is still relatively strong. Lv Zheng, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in the economic situation in 2011 that the basics of macroeconomic policy next year will be based on accelerating the transformation of the economic system and continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy. A prudent monetary policy and a positive employment policy put the overall level of stable prices in a more prominent position. Bai Jingming, deputy director of the Institute of Fiscal Science of the Ministry of Finance, believes that the expansion of active fiscal policy spending should focus on basic public services, strategic industries and underdeveloped regions. The implementation of a proactive fiscal policy cannot be carried out in isolation, and must be coordinated with monetary policy, trade policy, industrial policy, and fiscal policy of major economies. Experts attending the meeting believed that the “12th Five-Year Plan†national economic plan was implemented in 2011. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, the expected target of China’s economic growth was 7%-8%. Yu Bin, director of the macro department of the State Council Research Center, predicts that after the second quarter of next year, the Chinese economy will gradually stabilize and rebound, and the annual economic growth will reach 9.5%. Most research institutions predict that China's economic growth rate in 2011 will be 9%-10%. Some experts believe that the main problem facing China's economic growth is not the speed issue, but how to achieve a rapid and smooth transition of the economic model. Judging from the information passed by the leaders of the government ministries and economists, China's macroeconomic policies in 2011 will drive demand in the domestic steel market. In 2010, every 100 million yuan of fixed assets investment consumed about 3,400 tons of steel. Then, in 2011, fixed asset investment continued to grow steadily, and steel consumption was also considerable. The price of steel raw materials remains high, and rigid costs will support the continued high price of steel. Luo Tiejun, deputy director of the Raw Materials Division of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, believes that the monopoly of resources is an obstacle in the future of steel. Su Jing, deputy director of the Foreign Trade Department of the Ministry of Commerce, pointed out that the increase in domestic raw materials and rising labor costs will reduce the profit margin of enterprises and affect the enthusiasm and competitiveness of enterprises. International energy and resource prices may continue to rise next year, driving domestic raw material prices to rise, and domestic resources and environmental pressures will increase. The resource tax reform is urgent and will push up the price of raw materials. As a result, steel production costs continue to rise and steel mills' profit margins are further compressed. The average profit margin of each industry this year is 6%, while the steel industry's profit margin is only 3.55%, which is at a low level in various industries. Luo Tiejun believes that the steel industry will enter a state of “low growth and micro profit†in the future. The raw material market price continues to climb. Under the increasing cost pressure, in order to alleviate the cost pressure and ensure the efficiency of the enterprise, it is obviously difficult for the steel mill to reduce the ex-factory price of the steel, thus supporting the basic pattern of maintaining the high price of the domestic steel market. Steel exports may be better than 2010, but affected by trade protectionism, export growth is limited, the situation is not optimistic. Su Jing, deputy director of the Foreign Trade Department of the Ministry of Commerce, in his "China's import and export situation and policy changes under global trade friction" The report pointed out that due to the divergence of economic recovery in various countries, Europe and the United States have strengthened their self-protection and trade protectionism is on the rise. The US dollar will continue to fall, and business risks will increase, which will affect trade. Countries such as the United States and Europe have shown many means and deep-seated characteristics for trade protection from China, from low value-added products to high value-added products. Since the beginning of this year, the trade friction between the United States and Europe has shifted from traditional industries to high value-added industries, and products have extended to macro levels such as industries and exchange rates. China will also have an impact on China's traditional industries and products. China's steel industry should focus on domestic demand and guarantee proper exports. So what kind of measures are taken for exports? Some believe that export policies similar to crude oil and coal should be adopted, but the steel industry has a certain technical content, but also maintain high-end exports and maintain a certain international market competitiveness. It is necessary and necessary for China to maintain proper steel exports, but the export volume cannot be too large, and steel production is mainly to meet domestic demand. We must properly handle the relationship between maintaining stable growth of foreign trade and accelerating the transformation of foreign trade. Yu Bin, director of the macro department of the State Council Research Center, pointed out that we will gradually change the long-term dependence on exports, and gradually stimulate domestic demand and enhance consumption power. It is expected that the monthly export growth rate of steel products in 2011 will be in a low and high trend, and the annual export growth will fall back to 15%. U-steel demand growth will become a bright spot in the steel market. China Special Steel Association Hu Mingyang pointed out in his special report on "Special Steel's Concerns and Market Opportunities during the 12th Five-Year Plan Period"; high-quality special steel, special alloy materials, The inclusion of military supporting materials into the new materials industry, as a strategic emerging industry, will help the overall level of China's special steel industry to improve, and become one of the emerging industries in the future in the economic era. Special steel will usher in a new era, and the special steel and excellent steel market will become larger and larger. From the proportion of steel used by Ute Steel in 2010, industrial steel accounted for 38.2%; construction industry (excluding transportation, oil pipelines, marine engineering) accounted for 48.5%; transportation accounted for 5.2%; others accounted for 8.1%. In industrial steel, equipment manufacturing steel accounts for 49.0%, shipbuilding industry accounts for 13.0%, automobile industry accounts for 18.0%, petroleum and petrochemical industry accounts for 5%, and light industry accounts for more than 10%. In 2011 and in the next few years, U-Steel has a wide range of high-end manufacturing fields such as advanced transportation equipment such as aviation and high-speed rail, marine engineering equipment, high-end intelligent manufacturing equipment, wind turbine equipment, nuclear power equipment, metallurgical equipment, environmental protection equipment, and electronic equipment. Market space, this will be a huge business opportunity for steel trade enterprises.
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