Recently, some media said that six large enterprises in China, Russia, Europe, America, Japan and South Korea have begun to compete for the development rights of the Tabang Tolgoi coal mine in Mongolia. According to the media, the Taben Tolgoi coal mine contains the world's largest and rare coking coal resources. It is understood that the Mongolian government held a non-routine meeting on July 4 to discuss and approve the draft investment agreement of the Tarben Tolgoi coal mine in principle and decided to submit it to the parliament for approval. According to the Mongolian side, China Shenhua accounted for 40% of the Taben Tolgoi Investment Agreement, the United States Bodi Energy Group accounted for 24%, and the Russian-Mongolian joint venture company accounted for 36% (18% each). The Taben Tolgoi coal mine is a large coal mine in the world that is currently unexploited. The mining area has a coal storage area of ​​400 square kilometers and a coal seam thickness of 190 meters, a total of 16 layers. The preliminary proven coal reserves are 6.4 billion tons, including 1.8 billion tons of main coking coal and 4.6 billion tons of thermal coal, worth more than $300 billion. The tender is the western block of the mining area with a resource of about 1.2 billion tons. There are indications that the international strategic competition for coking coal has intensified with the increase in the competitiveness of the world's demand and the uncertainties such as international emergencies. Some experts believe that the supply trend of international coking coal, especially high-quality coking coal, will continue to be tight. Domestic coal producing areas should strengthen the strategic guarantee of coking coal, strengthen the protective mining mechanism, and improve the strategic reserve capacity. Coking coal demand is booming. International strategic competition is intensifying China is the world's largest coal consumer and importer, and the largest consumer and importer of coking coal. Last year, China produced and consumed about 3.2 billion tons of coal, of which coking coal accounted for more than 1 billion tons. China (Taiyuan) Coal Trading Center data show that in recent years, China's coking coal imports have increased year by year, from 4.66 million tons in 2006 to 47.27 million tons in 2010. In 2010, coking coal imports accounted for the total amount of coal imports nationwide. 32% of the four major coking coal exporting countries in Australia, the United States, Indonesia, and Canada exported 194 million tons in 2006, and 303 million tons in 2010, an increase of more than 55% in four years. International and domestic demand is in a state of “blowoutâ€. Some experts believe that the main reason for the rapid growth of coking coal demand is that China's economy continues to grow rapidly, especially the “multiplier effect†of fixed asset investment directly drives the demand for steel and coke. Although the proportion of coke production in Shanxi, the country's largest coke producer, has been declining in the country, from 32.9% in 2003 to nearly 21.9% in 2010, the national coke production in 2010 was about 388 million tons, up 9.1% year-on-year. new highs. This shows that the enthusiasm for coke production capacity construction across the country is still “highly risingâ€, directly driving the demand for coking coal. At the same time, the rapid recovery of the international social economy has also increased the demand for coking coal, especially in countries such as India. Under such a background, China's energy demand situation will continue to be tight. As the main raw material of the steel industry, coking coal prices will remain at a high level and it is difficult to drop sharply. The supply of high-quality main coking coal is in short supply. The supply gap is increasing year by year, and the shortage of varieties is expanding. The supply of domestic main producing areas will not increase significantly, and the supply of high quality main coking coal will exist for a long time. Some coal experts of Shanxi Hao Energy Consulting Co. predict that in 2011, the national coking coal production will reach nearly 1.2 billion tons, coke production will be about 399 million tons, coking clean coal demand will reach 569 million tons, and coking clean coal output is expected to reach 513 million. Tons, the supply and demand gap is about 56 million tons. This is an obvious upward trend compared with the supply and demand gap of 4 million tons in 2005. At the same time, the shortage of varieties has expanded from primary coking coal and fat coal to lean coal. In the past 10 years, the increase in coking coal production in the country has been lower than the increase in raw coal production. Since 2006, the annual output of coking coal in China has basically stabilized at around 1 billion tons. Although Shanxi has accounted for about one-third of the country's coking coal production, its capacity has increased significantly. However, the release of production capacity into production requires a process. In particular, safety production has become a top-ranking “political eventâ€. Before the integration of mines did not reach a safe and qualified status, It is difficult to get permission to resume production. At the same time, in the context of Shanxi's strategic transformation of resource-based economy, the local conversion and recycling of coal will become the main direction. In the future, more than 50% of Shanxi's new coal production may be converted locally. In 2011, Shanxi's coking coal may only increase by about 20 million tons compared with last year, with limited increase. Secondly, the production and mining cost of coking coal is higher than other coal types. At the same time, the complete cost of coal including production, resources, safety, environment, development and exit costs will be the general trend, which determines the coking coal as a strategic resource. The price will not drop. Among them, the quality of the main coking coal accounts for less than 1% of the world's total coal resources, and its scarcity determines that the situation of short supply will exist for a long time. Affected by unexpected events such as the Australian floods and the Great Japan Earthquake, international coking coal prices have experienced large fluctuations this year. The demand for developing countries such as India has increased, and the trend of increasing imports has been reflected in coking coal. Among them, India's coking coal imports increased by 71% from 2004 to 2008. Factors such as the Australian resource tax reform will also boost international coking coal prices, and the medium and long-term prices of coking coal will continue to rise. Beijing Changmao Consulting Co., Ltd. predicts that the supply of coking coal in the world coal trading market will be about 264 million tons in 2011, an increase of 4% over 2010. However, in 2011, the supply of coking coal in the world coal trading market was about 268 million tons. Compared with 2010, the price will increase by 5%, the demand will be greater than the supply, and the price trend will undoubtedly continue to climb. It is estimated that the national crude steel output will be 660 million tons this year, an increase of 5% year-on-year, which will increase the demand for coking coal. Establishing a protection mechanism to develop an international “price squatting†market Some experts believe that the multinational mining “giant†launched a competition for the development rights of the Tabang Tolgoi coal mine in Mongolia, which may increase domestic and international expectations for the coking coal market. The main domestic coal producing areas and related industries should increase the utilization level of coal resources and increase the development of the international “price squatting†market. First of all, the main mining areas still need to establish a protective mining mechanism and implement “intensive farmingâ€. China's coking coal has been in an over-exploited state for a long time. China's coking coal reserves account for about 22% of total coal reserves, but last year coking coal production accounted for 1/3 of total coal production. In the past, some coal mines in some of the main coking coal producing areas in Shanxi, only 3.5 meters in the 3.5-meter-thick coal seam, a large amount of high-quality resources were discarded, and sometimes even sold as electric coal. Experts suggest that although the integration of coal resources has improved the mechanization of mines and improved the rate of resource recovery, the industry management departments still need to establish a “resource recovery assessment mechanism†and adopt “quantitative insured†measures to reflect the scarcity of resources, which is conducive to Stimulate the company's moderate imports. Secondly, the main producing areas of coking coal can try to establish a high-quality resource allocation mechanism, which can not only improve the utilization level of coking coal, but also curb the disorderly expansion of coke production capacity. Liu Tailai, deputy secretary-general of the Shanxi Coking Industry Association, believes that in recent years, Shanxi has taken the initiative to control coke production capacity, but other areas are in the low-end, separate coke enterprises. The low resource utilization rate of these enterprises will inevitably lead to waste of coking coal resources. Liu Tai said that if the coal quality resource allocation mechanism can be established and the coking coal resources are tilted to the environmentally-friendly coke enterprises with high technical level and comprehensive utilization rate, the competitiveness of the domestic coking coal production industry can be greatly improved. Third, experts from Shanxi Energy Consulting Co., Ltd. believe that Mongolia's coal resources are about 150 billion tons, calculated according to coal-bearing area and coal-bearing density, of which coking coal accounts for about 1/3 of reserves, and the selectivity is good. The coal seam is easy to select coal, with low sulfur and phosphorus content, excellent coal quality and optimistic market prospects. According to China (Taiyuan) Coal Trading Center, compared with 2009, the proportion of China's coking coal imports from Australia fell from 66% to 37%, while Mongolia's rose from 12% to 32%. At the same time, compared with the import prices of coking coal in China, Mongolia is far lower than Australia and has a large “price sloppy†market space.
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