Due to the changes in European subsidy policies and the uncertainty of policies, the inventory of photovoltaic products manufacturers has accumulated, and the overall price of the entire solar photovoltaic industry chain in June has fallen sharply. The June solar energy value chain index released by Bloomberg New Energy Finance showed that the spot price of polysilicon fell by 28% month-on-month to US$53.4/kg; the price of 6-inch polysilicon wafers fell by 23% in June to reach US$2.39/piece. New lows; the price of more downstream polysilicon components fell by 15% to $0.92/watt. “Everyone is eliminating stocks†As the downstream demand is not as good as expected, after the spring of this year, the original PV installation peak season is characterized by light tempering. What followed was a decline in the price of photovoltaic products. Before May, solar photovoltaic consultancy Solarbuzz predicted that shipments in 2011 will reach 23.8GW. Due to oversupply, component ex-factory prices may face a drop of up to 17%. After the summer, this situation is even more serious. According to Bloomberg's data, PV components fell by 15% in June alone, with 23% of upstream wafers and up to 28% of the most upstream polysilicon. Last year, the global PV industry ushered in a year of explosive development. According to IMS Research, PV installations increased by 130% year-on-year last year. However, due to the continuous reduction of subsidies in Europe, the world's largest PV application market, many organizations predict that the growth rate of the PV installation market this year may be only about 30%. Regarding why the most upstream decline is the most serious, Bai Hongqiang, deputy secretary-general of China Silicon Materials Information Research Center, believes that the closer the PV industry is to the government, the stronger the predictability of volatility. Because government subsidies are relatively certain, the scale of the most downstream PV application market is relatively predictable. They then pass the demand upstream to the component, and then to the upstream silicon material, the uncertainty is gradually enhanced. “The 28% decline in a month is actually not big.†Bai Hongqiang said, “In the wave market where the polysilicon material fell from more than 500 US dollars per kilogram to more than 30 US dollars, the price almost fell straight down.†Bai Hongqiang revealed Since Bloomberg's solar value chain index is monthly data, it does not reflect the latest situation. "Now it has fallen below 50 US dollars a kilogram." A photovoltaic module company with a top ten global production capacity told the Morning Post reporter that "the recent market is not good, the big factory is not so good, the small factory is even more sad. Many companies 7 The list of the month was not good. We have been exposed to a number of big manufacturers and the expectations for the second quarter have been reduced.†Previously, Suntech expects a lower growth rate in the second quarter, and the gross profit margin is not much changed from the first quarter. Large companies such as Heguang Energy (NYSE: TSL) and Yingli (NYSE: YGE) expect gross margins to shrink in the second quarter. The source said that at the Intersolar PV exhibition held in Germany in June, a small factory even reduced the price per watt to 0.85 euros. “Everyone is bottoming out to eliminate inventory.†The downturn in the photovoltaic industry has also been reflected in the capital market. On June 17, China's photovoltaic manufacturer, China Light and Power (Nasdaq: CSUN) announced that its gross profit margin in the second quarter of 2011 was around 1%, compared with the previous forecast of 7.5% to 8.5%. After that, China Light and Power PV fell by 11.6% on the day. “The government does not have to raise the subsidy†Bloomberg New Energy Finance said that overall, the industry expects future PV product prices to fall further. Martin Simonek, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Solar analyst, said that the current market for PV modules is oversupply, manufacturers hope to reduce inventory through the market, and buyers in the market need cheaper PV modules due to subsidies. Manufacturers need to prepare for a painful phase, and some producers may even withdraw from the solar industry. Bai Hongqiang believes that “the fundamental reason for the decline in polysilicon feed is the surge in production, but the growth in downstream demand is limited, so the initiative begins to gradually shift from raw materials downstream.†Bai Hongqiang expects that domestic polysilicon production capacity may expand to 100,000 tons this year, compared with last year. It is almost doubled. “The level of the entire polysilicon industry varies greatly. Like GCL-Poly (3800.HK) can achieve almost 20 US dollars a kilogram, so even if it is less than 50 US dollars a kilogram, it can still maintain 100% profit. It continues to expand production is motivated and reasonable.†Bai Hongqiang said, “On the contrary, some enterprises with production costs of 50 US dollars per kilogram will be more painful.†Bai Hongqiang believes that this should be the polysilicon industry began to enter industrial integration. a signal. "However, the cost reduction is more conducive to parity online, which is good for operators in the long run." In the downstream, Tianhua Sunshine, a company focusing on the development and operation of photovoltaic power plants, told the Morning Post reporter that "to achieve PV parity online, it is expected It will be around 2013. In the past one or two years, the whole industry should be adjusted.†Sun Guangbin, secretary general of the China Electro-Mechanical Chamber of Commerce Solar PV Branch, revealed in an interview with Reuters that there are three or four global leading PV cell companies. They all expressed their urgency and are in contact with Bank of China (601988), Export-Import Bank, and China Development Bank. "Even there are 20 billion, 30 billion, etc., and there are loan projects. If the funding gap is not large, why do listed companies talk about domestic loans?" But he said that SMEs have become an integral part of the industrial chain. It is unlikely that a large number of bankruptcies will be closed. The market share that is vacated after the production cuts may be quickly filled by large companies eager to expand, so the industry will have an optimization process. Sun Guangbin also said that the upstream polysilicon enterprises are mostly operating in strong industries due to high industry thresholds, and because their profit margins are relatively better, these companies are better able to withstand the pressure of capital than the photovoltaic cells manufacturers in the middle and lower reaches. According to Michael Liebreich, CEO of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, the current price of photovoltaic products means that in areas with sufficient solar energy, the cost of large-scale photovoltaic projects can be reduced to 18 cents/kWh, and the cost of generating photovoltaic roofs can be reduced. 20 cents / kWh. In contrast, electricity prices in some parts of the United States during the day are 20-25 cents/kWh. The decline in photovoltaic power prices will increase their competitiveness in fossil fuel power supplies. For the current hardships in the photovoltaic industry, Bai Hongqiang believes that “the government does not need to introduce some subsidies for the subsidies because the market is starting to cool down. The market needs natural adjustment. The decline in prices is conducive to the growth of the entire photovoltaic industry.â€
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