According to a recent report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, despite current market challenges, the growing cost-effectiveness of renewable energy is expected to drive its share in new power generation capacity between 2013 and 2030 to reach 69% to 74%. In the most likely scenario, annual investments in non-hydro renewable energy projects are projected to rise by 2.3% compared to 2012, driven by falling fossil fuel costs relative to wind and solar, as well as advancements in continuous power sources like geothermal and biomass, reaching $630 billion by 2030.
By 2030, renewable energy is set to become a dominant force in global power generation. The BNEF 2030 energy market outlook outlines key factors influencing energy development, such as economic growth, regional demand trends, technological cost reductions, climate policy progress, and fossil fuel price movements. Three scenarios were analyzed: "baseline," "rapid development," and "conformity."
The "baseline" scenario, considered the most probable, forecasts that non-hydro renewable energy investment will hit $630 billion by 2030—3.3 times the 2012 level. This represents a 35% increase over last year’s forecast. Additionally, total non-hydro renewable capacity is expected to grow by 25%, reaching 3.5 gigawatts.
Under this baseline, 70% of new power generation capacity added between 2013 and 2030 will come from renewables, including large hydropower. Coal, natural gas, and oil will account for 25%, while nuclear will make up the remaining portion. Solar and wind will be the top contributors, each representing 30% and 27% respectively of new installations during the period.
Renewable energy demand is expected to keep rising across all scenarios. In the "rapid development" case, non-hydro investments could reach $880 billion by 2030, with cumulative investments over the 2013–2030 period totaling $9.3 trillion. An additional $2 trillion would be required for grid upgrades, smart infrastructure, storage, and demand response systems.
In the more conservative "conventional" scenario, non-hydro renewable investments are still expected to reach $470 billion by 2030, with a total of $6.1 trillion invested between 2013 and 2030.
Guy Turner, head of economics and commodities at BNEF, notes that although clean energy investment has declined since 2011, renewables will remain a core part of future power generation, even in less optimistic economic or policy environments.
Michael Liebreich, CEO of BNEF, highlights ongoing supply-side overcapacity in clean energy and the influence of cheap shale gas. He points out that many reports overlook the declining costs of renewables and the integration technologies needed for the energy system. Ultimately, he argues, cost efficiency will determine market success.
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