Abstract How do you view the stock burden of today's urban real estate? Just as China successfully converted the “population burden†into a “demographic dividendâ€, the “stock burden†can also be...
How do you view the stock burden of today's urban real estate? Just as China successfully changed the “population burden†into “demographic dividendâ€, the “stock burden†can also be changed into “stock dividendâ€. In the past few days, an old news about the “National Planning New Town New District will contain 3.4 billion people†that broke out in early 2014 has once again become a hot spot of public opinion. According to data quoted by the media report, as of May 2016, there were more than 3,500 new towns and districts in counties and counties across the country, and the planned population of these new towns and new districts reached 3.4 billion. This means that it is sensational to put half of the Earth in.
How did this number come from? China has a standard of 10,000 people per square kilometer for planned land use, and it is generally possible to introduce the population size from the scale of planned land use. It should be noted that this algorithm is only applicable to the “construction area†planning. For new districts that are mostly “policy areasâ€, it does not apply. If the "construction area" and "policy area" are confused, then the planned population of Beijing, which covers an area of ​​16,800 square kilometers, will reach 168 million, which is obviously not true. From this perspective, the reason why the planned population of the New Town New District reached 3.4 billion may be the "God's Number".
Although the proposition of "3.4 billion old people" is not true, its renewed public opinion concerns remind us to pay attention to the real problems in urban development. We all know that over the past 20 years, the development of Chinese cities has relied to some extent on land finance. It has been no small to alleviate the lack of local financial resources, the difficulty in financing public goods supply, the creation of employment opportunities and the improvement of urbanization. enhancement. However, with the development of economy and society, land finance has often become an objective in the absence of necessary institutional constraints. It is not only not conducive to optimizing economic structure, but also increases financial risks and overdrafts future benefits. From the statistics of 2015, the nation's urban stock real estate hit a record high, while the real estate development investment growth rate hit a record low. As the former institutional innovation, the land finance needs to be transformed.
In such a stage of development, the large-scale "city-building movement" may be difficult to sustain - this is also the reason why the "3.4 billion old people" caused public anxiety, and people realized the consequences of blindly "making cities" incrementally changing stocks.
General Secretary Xi Jinping said "problem awareness" and "what problem is solved if there is any problem." In the process of China's urban development, it is necessary to recognize the true problem and solve the real problem in order to bring about real change and development. How do you view the stock burden of today's urban real estate? Just as China successfully converted the “population burden†into a “demographic dividendâ€, the “stock burden†could also be changed to “stock dividendâ€. At the Central Financial and Economic Leading Group meeting in November 2015, General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed “to resolve real estate inventory and promote the sustainable development of the real estate industryâ€. The subsequent Central City Work Conference also carried out a top-level design for urban construction, and proposed development goals such as revitalizing inventory, compact intensive, and efficient green.
It can be said that in the future, China's urban development is not a big move, but a deep cultivation and tapping potential; instead of building a house to cover the house, it is to revitalize the stock. By revitalizing the stock, we will provide urban residents with higher quality urban space, thereby increasing the convenience of living, improving the quality of life and creating consumption conditions for residents. In other words, today's urban residents are not without a richer life demand, but a carrier that lacks these new demands. Why is the Disney business in Shanghai so prosperous? Why are visitors to the 798 Art District in Beijing like to weave? Why do some cities have a fire, fitness and art district? The reason is this. The “Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Coordinated Development Land Use Master Plan (2015-2020)†issued in May this year proposes that the construction land should be “reduced and slimmed downâ€, and the urban function should be upgraded. In principle, new construction land should be strictly controlled. It is also necessary to encourage the conversion of stocks, the potential of stocks, and the high-intensity construction of large-scale construction.
At present, the urbanization rate of China's permanent residents has exceeded 56%, which is a huge improvement compared with the urbanization rate of less than 20% at the beginning of reform and opening up. International experience shows that the urbanization rate is between 30% and 70%, which is the stage of rapid urban development. At present, the problems facing our urban development are not unique to China, and developed countries have experienced the same problems. The problems of development should be resolved in development. We can learn from the experience of developed countries, learn lessons, and realize the transformation of the new and old development momentum of the city by “frame-bound total, limited capacity, revitalize stocks, make superior increments, and improve qualityâ€. Realize the development of the city that is people-oriented, based on economic laws, and aims to promote development. This is not only an inevitable requirement of urban development, but also an important part of supply-side structural reform.
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