
In Sichuan, urea prices have dropped below the production cost, raising concerns among local manufacturers. According to data from the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Network, the mainstream factory price for urea currently stands at 1,700 yuan per ton. However, due to rising natural gas prices and increased production costs, some gas-based manufacturers are now facing expenses of approximately 1,800 yuan per ton. As a result, the market price has been gradually declining, with some low-end deals hitting as low as 1,650 yuan per ton.
From a broader industry perspective, the domestic urea market experienced significant volatility in July. Prices initially rose before falling sharply by month's end. The average factory price at the start of the month was around 1,700 yuan per ton, but by the end of July, it had dropped to 1,667.5 yuan per ton, and further fell to 1,632.5 yuan per ton in early August. Analyst Zhang Ming from the business community suggests that a strong short-term rebound is unlikely. Most manufacturers remain cautious, with expectations for a potential recovery possibly linked to the autumn fertilizer season in late August.
Currently, the agricultural fertilizer market is in an off-peak season, leading to reduced demand. Retailers are being more selective in their purchases, and overall industry operating rates are relatively low. Some manufacturers have scheduled maintenance and inspections, adding to inventory pressures. A major factor dragging down urea prices is the ongoing decline in coal prices. However, even with this drop, the price of coal-based urea is now approaching the cost line, signaling tight margins for producers.
As the market continues to face downward pressure, the situation remains closely watched by industry participants, who are preparing for possible shifts in supply and demand dynamics in the coming months.
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