According to the Oxford Economic Research Institute, the UK's economic research institute, the global economy will grow by 2.7% in 2019, investment will increase by 3.1%, industrial production will increase by 2.9%, and machine tool consumption will increase significantly, with a growth rate of 3.6%.
The reporter learned that in 2019, the EMO Hannover will be held in Hanover, Germany from September 16th to 21st. Schafer, General Manager of the German Machine Tool Manufacturers Association, the organizer of the Hannover Metalworking World, said, "After years of dynamic growth, the slowdown in global economic growth has created opportunities for companies to refocus on strategic issues and make decisions about future investments. "
Europe has a leading position in terms of capital expenditures and machine tool consumption, with a growth of 3.8% and 4.7% respectively. Especially in Eastern Europe, consumption will increase significantly. Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia remain successful industrial zones that are well developed and attract investment. Europe's largest market - Germany's economy is booming but growth is slightly slow. It is expected that German machine tool consumption will once again achieve strong growth in 2019, an increase of 3%.
Machine tool consumption growth rates in Asia and the Americas were 3.3% and 3%, respectively. Among them, Vietnam and Indonesia have higher growth rates, and machine consumption in the Indian subcontinent is far above average. But in terms of China's largest market, China, machine consumption is maintaining the same level of growth as the entire Asian market, but China will continue to exert strong market influence in the next few years. In addition, despite the slowdown in market development triggered by government tax cuts and attractive depreciation policy conditions, the US demand for machine tools in 2019 will remain high.
Schaefer said that the German machine tool industry has set a new record in production and exports in 2018. According to estimates, the industry has produced machinery and services worth more than 17 billion euros, with an export rate of about 68%. Despite this, the long-term rise of the German machine tool industry will also end. In 2018, its orders rose slightly by 1%, showing signs of a significant slowdown in the fourth quarter. On the one hand, the global economic development momentum is reduced; on the other hand, the Hannover metal processing world in the second half of 2017 promoted the outbreak of domestic demand in Germany, and the strong demand puts high demands on the 2018 total order target until the end of 2018. The number of orders has not exceeded, but negative growth has occurred. Moreover, with the expansion of trade conflicts, global trade protectionism is on the rise, oil prices are rising, various emerging markets are caught in a high inflation predicament, and the scale of uncontrolled expansion of debts is so frequent that the current global situation is disturbing, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises. .
"According to the machine capacity utilization rate and the supply of suppliers' parts and components, the economic slowdown has reduced the pressure on enterprises and employees, and created a space for thinking, which is convenient for setting a strategic route for the future." Schaefer pointed out.
At present, China's economy has slowed down and its growth rate has stabilized at a normal level. According to the Oxford Economic Research Institute, China's GDP is expected to grow by 6.1% in 2019, by 4.5% across Asia, and by industrial production, with a growth rate of 4.6%. Investment in the eight most important machine tool customer industries is expected to increase by 3.5%. The growth of the aircraft industry, other transportation vehicles (such as railway and shipbuilding), the automotive industry and mechanical engineering is particularly evident, and the proportion of investment has increased significantly. Modern production technology is an important factor in China's industrial competitiveness. China is the largest machine tool producer, but China's machine tool consumption is three-quarters higher than production. Oxford economists expect China's machine tool consumption to grow by 3.3% in 2019 compared to last year's increase in machine tool consumption (7%).
In 2018, China's machinery import value was about 8 billion euros, making China the world's largest importer of machinery. Germany is China's second largest supplier, accounting for about a quarter of its imports. In 2018, Germany's machine tool exports to China increased by 6%, about 2.3 billion euros. Orders mainly include machining centers, grinding machines, lathes, parts and accessories.
Schafer believes that the Sino-German machine tool business is by no means a one-way street, and about 4% of German imported machinery comes from China. China is one of Germany's top ten suppliers, accounting for more than 4% and sales of about 170 million euros. In 2018, Germany’s imports from China increased by 23%.
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