In the first four months of this year, industrial enterprises above the designated size in China saw a 11.4% year-on-year increase in profits, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on May 27. The total profit reached 1.61069 trillion yuan, reflecting a continued but slightly decelerated growth compared to the previous quarter.
While the overall trend remains positive, there are signs that producer price increases may continue to decline, which could affect future profit growth. In April alone, profits rose by 9.3% year-on-year, marking a slight improvement from March but still showing a slowdown compared to the earlier part of the year.
Experts suggest that the recent profit growth is not entirely indicative of a strong recovery in the real economy. Although the momentum is encouraging, many analysts remain cautious. They point out that the gains are largely driven by a few key sectors, such as electricity and heat production, automobile manufacturing, and electronics.
Dr. Yu Jianxun from the National Bureau of Statistics noted that these three industries contributed significantly to the improved performance in April, with their profit growth rates rising sharply compared to the previous month. Additionally, four major industries—electric power, computer and communication equipment, automobiles, and non-metallic minerals—accounted for nearly 88% of the new profits generated in April.
Economist Yao Wei from Société Générale warned that the fluctuating nature of the data makes it difficult to draw long-term conclusions about economic recovery. He pointed out that while April's figures showed some improvement, the overall income and profit margins were still below expectations.
Looking ahead, both domestic and international analysts expect continued pressure on industrial profits. This is due in part to the ongoing decline in producer prices and the contraction in the finished product price index. However, some forecasts suggest that external demand may pick up later this year, potentially leading to stronger profit growth in the second half of 2025.
Overall, while the latest data shows a modest improvement, the path to sustained growth remains uncertain, with many factors influencing the outlook for China’s industrial sector.
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