In the first four months of this year, industrial enterprises above the designated size in China saw a 11.4% year-on-year increase in profits, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on May 27. The total profit reached 1.61069 trillion yuan, reflecting a steady upward trend despite some fluctuations in growth rates.
However, the pace of profit growth slowed slightly compared to the earlier months. While the overall growth rate for January to April remained relatively stable, the monthly figures showed some variation. In April alone, profits rose by 9.3% year-on-year, which was 4 percentage points higher than March’s growth but 2.8 percentage points lower than the average for the first quarter.
Experts suggest that while the rise in corporate profits is a positive sign for economic activity and the real economy, there are concerns about its sustainability. Institutional analysts remain cautious, pointing out that external factors such as falling producer prices and weak demand could put pressure on future profit growth.
Dr. Yu Jianxun from the National Bureau of Statistics noted that the acceleration in April was mainly driven by three key sectors: power generation and supply, automobile manufacturing, and computer and communication equipment production. These industries contributed significantly to the overall growth, with their profit increases outpacing those seen in previous months.
The new profit gains were concentrated in four major industries: power generation, computer and communication equipment, automobiles, and non-metallic mineral products. Together, these accounted for 88.3% of the total added profit in April.
Economist Yao Wei from Société Générale warned that the data should be interpreted carefully, as it can be volatile. He pointed out that while April’s figures showed improvement, both revenue and profit margins were still below expectations. He also expressed concern that industrial profits may face continued pressure in the coming months due to ongoing declines in producer prices and weak demand.
Goldman Sachs’ Asian Economic Research team echoed similar sentiments, noting that although profit growth rebounded in April, it remained weak due to slow industrial value addition and sluggish upstream prices. However, they do expect a more significant improvement in the second half of the year, driven by stronger external demand.
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