Recently, it was learned from the two sessions that the seven departments said that they should maintain the stability of the first housing loan policy this year and urge banking financial institutions to support households to purchase the first set of ordinary self-occupied housing. While resolutely curbing the demand for unreasonable housing, the first set of housing loan supply is guaranteed. It has been expected that the favorable policies of the two sessions will be stimulated, but in this regard, the real estate control policy will be stricter and continue to be restricted. Then, whether the demand for steel supply in the downstream steel market of the steel market will be suppressed again. Regarding the real estate regulation and control situation this year, relevant persons from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development said that the objective conditions and subjective conditions for housing price increases this year are not available. Even if some new policies are introduced, relevant departments will still control investment and speculative demand, while protecting the rigid demand for initial home purchases. Since the beginning of this year, the performance of the real estate industry has been not very optimistic. According to relevant statistics, the sales of first-line housing enterprises fell sharply in the first two months. The sales volume of Vanke was 19.05 billion yuan, down 37.4% year-on-year. If the commercial housing can not support most of the demand of the construction steel market, then the affordable housing will become an important reliance on the demand of the construction steel market. How much demand can the steel market bring to the construction of 7 million sets of affordable housing this year? In 2012, the target for the construction of affordable housing was reduced from 10 million sets last year to 7 million sets, and the number of completed projects was 5 million sets, reflecting that the construction of affordable housing is more rational. However, it is estimated that, together with the continuation project carried over in 2011, the amount of construction projects under construction will reach 18 million units this year, and the capital demand will be around 2.5 trillion yuan. Obviously, this year's affordable housing construction will face greater funding tests. Although monetary policy has now begun to be relaxed, its impact has not yet been passed on to the real economy. Zhou Xiaochuan also said that the RRR cut does not indicate that monetary policy is relaxed and does not boost the stock market. Therefore, this year's capital easing may be just a market comfort, the property market continues to tighten, and building materials demand will still be unable to be released in volume. At present, the construction steel market has been expecting the downstream demand to pick up, and the steel price has also maintained a steady and rising trend. According to the domestic famous spot trading platform - China Steel Spot Network market monitoring data shows: on the 13th, the domestic key cities Ф 6.5mm high line average The price was 4,291 yuan / ton, up 28 yuan from yesterday; the average price of Ф 25mm three-level rebar was 4,407 yuan, up 27 yuan. Leading cities: Beijing 6.5 high line 4260 yuan, flat; third-grade rebar mainstream specifications 4490 yuan, up 30 yuan; Shanghai market high line 4150 yuan, up 50 yuan; third-grade rebar 4220, up 20 yuan. Although the price adjustment of Shagang rebar is only 20 yuan, the snail is also raised by 150 yuan. The upward adjustment of prices in the middle of Shagang will inevitably lead to a new wave of upswing across the country. However, if the downstream demand release space is limited, I don't know how long the building material price rise can last. If the growth rate of real estate slows down, the demand for home appliances and other supporting facilities will also slow down. According to statistics, in the first two months of this year, the retail sales of air-conditioning industry has dropped by 30% compared with the same period of last year. The market needs to be activated, perhaps the overcapacity of the air-conditioning industry, 2011 The backlog of air-conditioning stocks needs to be released. Suppressed by the housing downturn, the home appliance industry is also not very optimistic, although the news from the two sessions will restart the start of the old-fashioned stimulus consumption policy to drive demand, but the key is still in its actual demand. If the housing enterprises and household appliances industry continue to be sluggish, then it is also a big blow to the steel traders who expect the steel market to release their heavy volume. On the whole, the real estate regulation and control policy will continue to tighten in 2012. The “restricted purchase†and “reasonable return of housing prices†will continue to severely suppress the real estate industry. This year, the real estate industry will not be optimistic, and the space for building steel is limited. However, this year's construction of affordable housing and the completion of housing last year will drive certain demand, and this year's infrastructure construction of water conservancy and hydropower will also drive certain building materials demand. In general, as long as the weather picks up and the downstream starts to continue, the upward trend in steel prices is likely to continue.
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