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Positive changes in manufacturing industry HSBC PMI
China's manufacturing industry showed signs of rebound. Yesterday's announcement of the “HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index Preview†data for the beginning of August was 49.8, which rebounded for two consecutive months, indicating that China's manufacturing activity only slightly cooled. The analysis predicts that the current market data has undergone positive changes, providing space for the central bank to maintain monetary policy continuity. It is estimated that the time point for the central bank to raise interest rates may be postponed.
The macroeconomic leading indicators released yesterday showed that the initial value of HSBC China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8 in August. It rebounded slightly from the final value of 49.3 last month, but it is still below the 50-point watershed. The contraction trend of each sub-index is also slowing down, with the initial value of the new export order index rebounding to a three-month high of 49.6.
Qu Hongbin, chief economist of HSBC China, told reporters that “the initial value of manufacturing PMI in August is still consistent with the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value of around 13%.â€
China's industrial added value above designated size increased by 14% year-on-year in July. Although it continued to fall back, it was still within market expectations, alleviating concerns about a hard landing.
Among the other sub-indices of HSBC PMI, the contraction of output index and employment index is slowing down, consistent with the overall trend. The rise in input and output prices is still accelerating, and manufacturing will continue to face cost-driven inflationary pressures. Manufacturing finished goods inventory is accelerating digestion.
Investment Bank: Continue to reduce China's annual GDP growth
In response to the current signs of slowing manufacturing in China, investment banks have begun to lower their forecasts for China's annual GDP growth. Investment banks expect the central bank to raise interest rates at a later time.
Ma Jun, chief economist of Deutsche Bank Greater China, recently released a report to reduce China's 2011 GDP growth forecast from 9.1% to 8.9%, and said that in the next 1-2 years, the European debt system will be transmitted to the global financial system. And the biggest risks facing the economy.
The report lowered China's 2012 GDP growth forecast from 8.6% to 8.3%, and the export growth forecast was revised down from the original 15% to 11%. Taking into account the impact of falling commodity prices, the forecast of China's CPI growth in 2012 is expected. The value is lowered from 3.5% to 2.8%.
The report predicts that if Europe and the United States double bottom, China will have to adopt certain stimulus policies. Ma Jun believes that the new round of stimulus policies can no longer be based on investment infrastructure, but should promote consumption as the main line, while appropriately supporting structural weaknesses such as small and medium-sized enterprises, affordable housing, services and agriculture.
The central bank is expected to tolerate lower currency growth
The industry believes that the central bank's monetary policy will remain stable and will emphasize the importance of maintaining economic growth and managing inflation. The current manufacturing data provides the central bank with more room for regulation.
The analysis predicts that the M2 growth rate will fall below 14% in August. Previously, the M2 year-on-year growth rate fell to 14.7% in July, and M2 decreased by 792.1 billion yuan, setting a new low since June 2005.
Liu Junyu, an analyst at China Merchants Securities Financial Markets Department, believes that the current market capital is still fragile, and the interest rate of the central bank bill unexpectedly rose last week, indicating that the current policy will maintain a tightening orientation. In the current situation of controlled leverage of the banking system, the impact of interest rate hikes on the market is far less affected by the tightening of funds. According to estimates by CICC, the bank's current reserve ratio is still around 1%, and the repo rate is likely to fluctuate greatly due to short-term disturbances in financing demand.
China Merchants Securities report pointed out that as the foreign exchange account in July has dropped to a half-year low of 219.6 billion yuan, and the credit increase is also lower than market expectations. It is not surprising that the M2 growth rate is expected to decline in the second half of 2011. It is expected that the central bank will tolerate lower currency growth this year.
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