Abstract A few days ago, there were media reports that Foxconn wanted to make a transformation, and tens of billions of funds invested in planning for photovoltaics in Guangxi, and more interested in wooing Alibaba to plan a bigger photovoltaic game. In view of Foxconn's multiple jumps, this article does not intend to verify the authenticity of this news, focusing on the feasibility of this strategy and possible...
A few days ago, some media reported that Foxconn wanted to make a transformation, and tens of billions of funds invested in planning for photovoltaics in Guangxi, and more interested in wooing Alibaba to plan a bigger photovoltaic game. In view of Foxconn's multiple jumps, this article does not intend to verify the authenticity of this news, focusing on the feasibility of this strategy and its potential impact on the market outlook. Foxconn + Alibaba +?
Foxconn's analysis is based on the following:
(1) Foxconn's gross profit in the first quarter was 5.46%, and net profit was 1%. The OEM advantage is self-evident. Hon Hai Precision ranked the world's top 500 in 2012 with a revenue of $117.5 billion and a profit of $2.8 billion. And the turnover of the world's largest component shipping company in 2012 is only roughly equal to its profit.
(2) As early as 08-09, when the last wave of photovoltaics was low, Foxconn deliberately cut into the field of photovoltaic manufacturing, and the technical conditions at that time were still immature, and it was still in a wait-and-see state until 2011. Now, the technical genre is initially finalized, and the future cost reduction route is relatively clear. However, the current production costs of the production equipment in the mainstream enterprises are limited in the next two or three years. There are already prerequisites for a stable investment.
(3) The core competitiveness of any enterprise is talent. After all, the requirements for people from polysilicon production, pull crystal, ingot, square, slice, battery, and components are relatively high, not training one or two. The production line of Apple mobile phones can be assembled in a day, and hundreds of failed PV companies have prepared a wealth of human resources. To be more popular, it is now the best time to hunch the bottom talent.
However, if managers can suppress technicians, this will be the key, and it is best to manage them by technology.
(4) The planet has the ability to build a 30GW photovoltaic production line in one year. Under the conditions of preparation for the preliminary work, 10GW will be completed in 9 months, plus 3 months of climbing, considering China's distributed The start-up time of PV is just right, this time is just right.
After the budget calculation, the total investment of 10GW from stone to component to photovoltaic system production line will not exceed 30 billion yuan, and the depreciation of light production cost will be more than one year ago. The line saves half. The normal corporate investment, the fourth loan six, the capital is about 10 billion. Even if the bank does not lend, Foxconn itself has this financial strength.
(5) The cost can be lowered even if the water and electricity supply in Guangxi is sufficient and the local investment conditions are favorable. After investigation, the author found that the electricity price given by Guangxi has been as low as 0.35 yuan / kWh. Due to the oversupply of global energy in a short period of time, the peripheral imported coal price is lower than the local coal price, the state encourages the power plant to use imported coal, and the local electricity price cannot be raised significantly in the next five years. Guangxi's supporting resources are generally better than Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia.
(6) The production cost of components of the leading crystalline silicon enterprises is about 3.6-3.8 yuan/W (including tax). After repeated calculations, using the mature production line technology of mainstream molding in 2013, the production cost in Guangxi can be reduced to 2.8-2.9 yuan/W (including tax). In the case of full production, the depreciation of production from stone to component can be as low as 0.3 yuan / W, the cost of electricity can be 0.3 yuan / W lower than the industry average, through the reduction of redundant grassroots management, the use of advanced equipment technology The labor cost can be 0.2 yuan/W lower than the average level, and the logistics transportation cost brought by the industrial agglomeration also has a cost advantage of about 0.1 yuan/W. In the future, if you follow up with new technologies, the cost will drop.
And including inverters, brackets, these are light asset inputs, re-assembly processing products, large-scale assembly line production can lower its cost. Large-scale centralized procurement and manufacturing are conducive to reducing costs, and the production of a considerable number of auxiliary materials can also reduce costs.
(7) The cost of the final 5KW final finished PV system is approximately 2.9 yuan / W component, 0.7 yuan / W inverter, 0.3 yuan / W bracket, 0.2 yuan / W wire and cable. This does not require too much management overhead, very low sales costs, and very low financial costs. The cost of a final set of manufactured products can be fully controlled within 4.5 yuan / W.
At present, the cost of buying a cheap bulk DIY photovoltaic system on Taobao is about 5.5 yuan / W (about 5KW, labor does not count). The bulk installation price is 7 yuan - 8 yuan / W, the single installation is 8-10 yuan / W.
(8) Considering the overall growth of the global PV market in 2014-2017, if there is no other large-scale capital in the PV manufacturing industry, the tax-only price of mainstream components is only 3.3-3.7 yuan/W (45-50 cents/W without tax) It will be the bottom area of ​​the price for a longer period of time in the future.
With such low cost control, the 10GW component will bring 7-10 billion cash flow and more than 3 billion net profit every year. This profit will be used in its own R&D investment or add new The expansion of technical equipment can bring financial support for its continued cost reduction, and it has enough strength to meet the era of 100GW of annual installed capacity. At the same time, this is also a good entry point for Foxconn to get rid of the full OEM model in the manufacturing field. As for the survival of other companies, it will be clear at a glance.
Summary : This kind of profit is not a huge attraction for Foxconn, which has only 5 points for gross profit. It is very attractive to any boss with a heavy weight. Unless there is a restriction on the red letter of the central government, what reason is there to vote?
Of course, this situation is a bit too idealistic.
Alibaba's analysis
In May 2013, Ma Yun announced his retirement and wanted to be environmentally friendly. Which part of environmental protection? Lenovo proposed to enter the manufacturing industry last year, and then it came out that Foxconn teamed up with Alibaba. It seems that it is really directed at photovoltaics. No one will question Alibaba's ambitions.
Alibaba's three strategies - platform, finance, data.
(1) platform
As early as last year, Ma Yun planned to unite with the four links and the railway, the transportation department and related financial consortia, and operate hundreds of billions to build a cheaper and more convenient logistics system. The e-commerce is the final, which is the competition logistics channel cost. The cost of the last mile. Logistics is only part of Alibaba's big platform.
The cost of photovoltaic systems, especially materials, is very transparent, and the channel cost is not well estimated, including transportation costs, labor costs, storage costs, management costs, and so on. Due to the small amount, the gross profit can not be too low. After the author estimates, from the factory in Guangxi to the photovoltaic system in Heilongjiang, the cost of logistics can be completely controlled within 0.1 yuan / W, which is unmatched by LTL freight and ordinary express.
(2) Finance
Although 2012 Alibaba Group's revenue was $4.08 billion, its profit was only $485 million. However, in 2012, Alibaba and its Taobao system have successfully completed online transactions of more than 1 trillion yuan. Alibaba's Alipay has more than 20 billion in cash per day. It is estimated that network consumption will reach in the next decade. At the level of more than 10 trillion yuan, the amount of funds for sleep will reach 200 billion yuan, which will be more than the cash in the eyes of the world's largest commercial banks. This money is also the gold ingot in the eyes of many banks.
Its cash pool in Alipay has already begun to operate “small micro-loanâ€, initially forming a benign ecosystem of self-circulation. No collateral is needed in this system, and credit can be borrowed only by credit.
Online shopping has become a part of life. China has about 300 million people with online shopping experience, and more than 80% of households have items purchased online. With Alipay, the electricity bill has been launched in many cities, and it is doomed to form a monopoly.
Such a large pool of funds is a financial leasing service that is entirely possible to make mortgages for photovoltaic products.
(3) Data
The value of the data is self-evident, and the data in the hands of Alibaba is invaluable. In 2012, it mastered more than 90% of China's online consumption data, and about 5% of Chinese consumption data. Through artificial intelligence + data mining + pattern recognition technology, you can accurately analyze who is the most likely to buy PV products.
In the past, advertising was a strategy of a cluster bomber, but now it has entered the marketing era of information guidance and peer-to-peer.
At present, Alibaba has already participated in Sina Weibo, and its penetration of interactive online media has greatly increased.
There are also rumors that the Center for Weights and Measures is talking to a big data company. To sum up the components and inverters that are mastered, and even the data of the power plant of Golden Sun, should be classified at the confidential level in the industry. Will this big data company be Alibaba?
Summary : As for Alibaba's other strategies, this article is skipped, but it is certain that if Alibaba Group wants to share a piece of it, it is not difficult.
Money can't necessarily find top talent, but no talent must make a profit. Alibaba is a young group with nearly 30,000 employees and an average age of just 26 years. Young is capital, dare to dare to do it and dare to do it.
As for the final question mark, it is to install the operation and maintenance department.
The installation system must always be installed. This is not a refrigerator, just go upstairs. It is also necessary to have after-sales service.
One is that Guo Taiming and Ma Yun set up a joint venture company, the form of business templates joined by agents everywhere, another possibility is that there is no head office, that is, retail investors around the country play, find Foxconn to get goods, use Alibaba's logistics warehousing, this is for Avoiding monopoly.
Or is there any other subject?
The future of photovoltaics is likely to be like a pack of instant noodles. The manufacturer only earns 1 cent per box, and the price on the container in the supermarket is 3.5 yuan/box, while the price on the train that controls the channel is 6 yuan. / Box, don't be too expensive, not yet counter-offer! The channel is king!
This market has a monopoly and should also have competition. Because the above profits are still too thick in my opinion.
The second group: Samsung + Suning + Tencent +?
Samsung. If Foxconn is the world's number one OEM of electronic products, then Samsung is the world's number one in the production and research and development of electronic products. Its 2012 global top 500 ranked 20th, with revenue of 148.9 billion US dollars and profits of 12.1 billion US dollars.
With 40 billion U.S. dollars in cash and a global investment project, last year it planned to invest 200 billion in Xi’an to make strategic investments in the electronics industry. The preferential conditions given by the local area are even more astounding. The coal in Shaanxi Yulin has been used in China for decades.
Samsung has already been involved in photovoltaics, and the investment is too early. At present, the polysilicon business has been cut off and silver paste is retained. In order to retreat, is there a possibility that the current technology upgrade investment cost is low?
Suning. It is Suning and Jingdong who can compete with Alibaba Tmall.
On February 19, 2013, Suning Appliance has been renamed Suning Yunshang Group. Currently, the strategy will be set in 2020. By self-built property, the low-efficiency stores will be closed and new stores will be built. The scale of the store will be planned by 2020. The number of 1,700 homes has increased to 3,500, and it is necessary to know that there are more than 670 cities in China above the county level. On average, one city can be allocated to more than 5 stores.
Photovoltaic home systems, in the future, may not be all online shopping, will certainly be the same as TV, refrigerator, air conditioning, solar water heaters, need a kind of on-site shopping experience. Sometimes it is very fun to kill at the scene.
Logistics costs, this Alibaba-led logistics system must be shared by the entire society. Suning will also invest about 20 billion yuan in the next three years to upgrade its inherent logistics system. Its store suppliers + e-commerce + retail service providers are very suitable for the development of domestic household photovoltaic systems.
China's ground power station will be reloaded for at least three years. As long as the policy is strong, the existing industrial and commercial roofs within five years will be basically installed. The rest will be the roof of the residents, and finally return to the large-scale ground power station.
Tencent: Internet representative of Chinese cottage culture. In 2012, the company's revenue was 45 billion yuan and its profit was 25.7 billion yuan. No evaluation of this revenue and profit.
Tencent has QQ, WeChat, Weibo, website, online games, five data flow centers, close to the monopoly of user adhesion. The user behavior data generated every day is more PB level, and the proper use of mining will be the realm of Xiao Lifei's knife.
Imagine, QQ, don't say that it plays three times a day, that is, one week, three times a month to install PV advertising, this influence is much more powerful than spending hundreds of millions of newspapers before the news broadcast.
The last question mark is also the installation and operation enterprise.
In the end, is it a national interlocking enterprise? Or is it generally scattered sand? Just like selling electrical appliances, after three years of quality assurance, after three years of service, the roof glass can only be rubbed by itself? I don’t believe that small retail type Developers, installers can really install decades of photovoltaic systems. What is the problem with the component inverter?
Automatic Door,Automatic Commercial Sliding Door,Hotel Automatic Glass Sliding Doors,Automatic Set Door
Caesar door control co.,ltd , http://www.caesar-door.com