The peak season will end the narrow range of steel price fluctuations

At present, under the influence of a series of “steady-growth” economic policies introduced by the country, the domestic steel market’s mentality has stabilized, but due to the oversold and rebounded prices in the previous period, it has become the driving force for domestic steel mills to resume production, and the peak season for steel consumption is also At the end, the domestic steel market will reach new market balance under the influence of these two major factors, and it is expected that the short-term domestic steel market will maintain a small fluctuation.

According to the forecast data of the Lange Steel Information Research Center weekly price forecast model, this week (2012.10.29-11.2) domestic steel market prices will fluctuate within a narrow range, the long products market will fluctuate, and the plate market price will rise steadily . The Lange Steel Composite Index is expected to fluctuate around 148.4 points, with an average increase of about 0.1 point. The average steel price will be around 3860 yuan, and the average fluctuation will be around 20-30 yuan. Langer Steel's long product index is expected to fluctuate near 166.9. , rose slightly by about 0.1 points; Lange Steel plate price index is expected to fluctuate around 126.2 points, a slight increase of about 0.1 points.

From the Lange Steel Information Research Center market survey, it is expected that this week (2012.10.29-11.2) domestic long products market prices will vary, while the plate market price will rise slightly or slightly higher; raw material market prices will rise or fall is not First, the market price of iron ore and scrap steel will remain basically stable, the market price of coke will rise by 20 yuan, and the billet market price will drop by 20-30 yuan.

1. Domestic steel market fluctuates slightly this week. In the 43rd week of 2012 (10.22-10.26), the Lange Steel (LGMI) comprehensive price index reached 148.3 points, a week-on-month increase of 0.14% and a decrease of 13.41% from the same period of last year. Among them, the LGMI long products price index was 166.8 points, a week-on-month increase of 0.11%, a decrease of 13.47% compared with the same period last year; LGMI sheet price index was 126.1 points, a week-on-month increase of 0.19%, a decrease of 13.31% over the same period last year (see Figure 1 for details) .

According to the price data of 17 categories of 44 specifications in some regions monitored by the Lange Steel Information Research Center market, the market price of major steel products fluctuates slightly in the first 43 weeks of 2012 (10.22-10.26). A substantial increase in the number of flat varieties has increased and the number of falling varieties has decreased significantly. Twenty-two of them rose, 15 more than last week; 15 were flat, 6 more than last week; 7 were down, down 21 from the previous week. The price of domestic steel raw materials market rose steadily or slightly, the market price of iron ore increased slightly by 30-40 yuan, the coke market price rose by 20-30 yuan, the scrap market price increased by 50-150 yuan, and the billet market price rose steadily by 30 yuan. .

2. This week, the national steel stock market slowed down slightly. The current national steel social inventories continued to decline. The decline in the decline in building materials stocks slowed slightly, and the stock of slabs went down. According to market monitoring by Lange Steel Information Research Center, on October 26, the national steel society stocks were 12.7339 million tons, a decrease of 436,400 tons from the previous week. From the point of view of the sub-variety: the country's wire rod social inventory is 1.052 million tons, down 4.17% from last week; rebar social inventory is 4.5554 million tons, down by 5.04% from last week; the inventory of the social inventory of the coil is 295.9 thousand tons, It was down 4.10% from the previous week; the social volume of hot-rolled coils was 3,829,500 tons, down 3.54% from last week; the social volume of cold-rolled coils was 1,595,300 tons, up 0.12% from last week; the plate's social inventory The amount was 1,507,300 tons, a decrease of 0.11% from the previous week.

3. Wide fluctuations in the steel market this week. Week 43 of 2012 (10.22-10.26) The rebar market continued the daily intraday volatility and the overall price movements slowly moved up. This week's weekly settlement price rose by 32 points, the price continued to climb tenaciously, and the buying at the bottom also gradually increased, and the market sentiment was also better, which all brought in bullish factors for the sustainability of price increases. This week, the main contract was 835,000 contracts, an increase of 180,000 contracts, and the 1305 contract also became the main contract. The 1301 and 1305 contracts added up to 1.4 million lots, and the overall warehouse receipts remained at a high level.

4. Concern about the recent factors affecting steel prices Macroeconomics:

In September, the central government invested 399.5 billion yuan to complete the budget 97%

According to statistics from the Ministry of Finance, as of the end of September, the central government’s investment in infrastructure projects has issued a budget of 390.5 billion yuan, accounting for 97% of the annual budget, an increase of 8 percentage points over the same period of the previous year, focusing on projects under construction, new projects, and new start-up countries. The funds for major project construction are well protected.

China's October HSBC PM initial value rose to 49.1, hitting a new high for three months According to HSBC data, China’s initial HSBC purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 49.1 in October, setting a new high for three months. HSBC’s PMI ended in September. The value is 47.9.

State Council: Restoring the construction of nuclear power in coastal areas without thawing the inland project of the State Council Premier Wen Hao presided over the State Council executive meeting on the 24th to discuss the adoption of the “12th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development”, and once again discussed and passed “Nuclear Power Safety Planning (2011-2020) Year) and Nuclear Power Medium and Long Term Development Plan (2011-2020). The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Energy Development” passed at the meeting proposed that in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, we must speed up the transformation of energy production and utilization methods, strengthen the energy conservation priority strategy, comprehensively improve the efficiency of energy development, transformation and utilization, and reasonably control energy consumption. Total amount, build a safe, stable, economic, and clean modern energy industry system. The meeting will deploy nuclear power construction for the current and future periods: (1) Safely restore normal construction. We must reasonably grasp the pace of construction and steadily advance in an orderly manner. (b) Scientific layout projects. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, only a few well-argued nuclear power project sites were arranged along the coast, and no inland nuclear power projects were arranged. (c) Improve access thresholds. Build new nuclear power projects in accordance with the world's highest safety requirements. Newly built nuclear power units must meet three generation safety standards.

Raw material supply:

Vale's Earnings in the Last Quarter Drop by 66% YoY

The world’s largest iron ore company, Brazil’s Vale, announced on the 24th that the company’s net profit in the third quarter of this year was R$3.328 billion (approximately US$1.67 billion), and its profit level was significantly reduced by 66% compared to the same period of last year. The second quarter decreased by 37%. Vale said it was the company’s lowest profit margin in the past two years.

In the third quarter, Vale's iron ore production was 83.92 million tons, a decrease of 4.2% from the same period last year. The average price of iron ore exports was US$83.69 per ton, which was 44.67% lower than the average price in the same period of last year and 19% lower than the second quarter of this year. The price per ton of pellets is US$141, a decrease of 31.49% from the same period of last year.

In the third quarter of this year, Vale exported 35.34 million tons of iron ore to China, accounting for 49.1% of the company’s iron ore exports from 43.7% in the third quarter of last year. On the contrary, the share of the European market in Brazil’s iron ore exports dropped from 19.6% in the same period last year to 17.9%.

Industry News:

In the first three quarters of the world, crude steel production reached 1.149 billion tons. According to statistics from the World Iron and Steel Association, total crude steel production in the 62 countries and regions in the first three quarters of the year was 1.149 billion tons, an increase of 0.6% year-on-year, including September production. 124 million tons, which was flat year-on-year. In the first three quarters, Asia produced 748.6 million tons of crude steel, an increase of 1.5%; EU production of 129.6 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%; North American crude steel production of 92.792 million tons, an increase of 3.9%; South American production of 35.055 million tons, a year-on-year decline 4.7%. From the perspective of major producing countries, China's crude steel production in September was 57.95 million tons, up 0.6% year-on-year; Japan's 8.898 million tons, down 1.0% year-on-year; Korea's 5.620 million tons, up 1.8% year-on-year; Russia's crude production The steel was 6,234,000 tons, an increase of 15.1% over the same month of last year; the United States produced 7.051 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%. In addition, the utilization rate of global crude steel capacity rose from 75.5% in August 2012 to 77.7% in September, but it was still 2.5 percentage points lower than the same period of last year.

Hebei Iron & Steel's January-September Net Profit Drop of 70% According to the Hebei Iron and Steel Quarterly Report, the company’s net loss in the third quarter was 2,608.24 billion yuan, compared with a profit of 310 million yuan in the same period of last year; the cumulative net profit in the first three quarters was 367 million yuan. The year-on-year decrease of 71.69%. In the first three quarters of Hebei Iron and Steel, the company realized total revenue of 86.659 billion yuan, down 19.59% year-on-year; of which, the total revenue realized in the third quarter was 26.971 billion yuan, down 26.68% year-on-year. In the first three quarters, the A-share EPS was 0.03 yuan, down 71.69% year-on-year.

Anshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. lost 3.17 billion yuan in the first three quarters, according to data from the Anshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. quarterly report. According to the decline in steel prices, the company recorded a loss of 3.17 billion yuan in the first three quarters and a net profit of 239 million yuan in the same period of last year. The revenue was 58.376 billion yuan, down 16.27 percent year-on-year. %. In the first three quarters, the loss per share was 0.44 yuan, and the basic earnings per share for the same period last year was 0.03 yuan. Among them, the company's third-quarter loss was 1.194 billion yuan, and it realized a net profit of 19 million yuan in the same period of last year. It achieved revenue of 18.998 billion yuan, down 18.75% year-on-year.

In the first three quarters, Shougang Co., Ltd. lost 308 million yuan, according to the data of Shougang Steel's third quarter report. In the first three quarters of this year, the company suffered a loss of 308 million yuan and a loss of 0.1039 yuan per share. In the first three quarters, the company’s operating income was 7.872 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.16%. In the third quarter, the company’s net profit was 41.9221 million yuan, which turned the company into a profitable company.

The first three quarters of Shagang net profit fell 103.94%

According to the quarterly report of Shagang Steel, the company’s total operating income for the first three quarters was 9.025 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.827 billion yuan from the same period of last year, a decrease of 23.86% year-on-year. At the same time, due to the decline in the prices of raw materials in the market is far lower than the rate of decline in steel prices, resulting in product gross profit margin fell by 5.16 percentage points year-on-year, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first three quarters was -983.35 million, which fell 103.94% year-on-year. The financial report shows that in the third quarter, Shagang's operating income was only 2.648 billion yuan, down 28.35% year-on-year, and its net profit was -44 million yuan, a year-on-year drop of 155.51%.

The previous period of thread ** rose on the 26th main contract rose 0.41%

The rebar main 1305 contract was opened at RMB 3,674/ton in the morning on the 26th, and then the price showed wide intraday volatility throughout the day. It was RMB 3,655/t for the whole day and RMB 3,702/t for the whole day, and it closed at RMB 3,683/t. Compared with the previous trading day (25th), the settlement price rose by 15 yuan/ton, and 2,704,280 contracts were dealt with, holding 834,678 positions, or 29,076 contracts.

Downstream demand:

January-September National Shipbuilding Completion Declined by 18.5%

According to statistics from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, from January to September 2012, the country’s shipbuilding completed capacity totaled 41.58 million dwt, which was a year-on-year decrease of 18.5%, of which sea vessels were 12.36 million corrected gross tons; new orders for vessels were 15.41 million dwt, down 46.9 percent year-on-year. %, of which 632 million corrected gross tonnage of sea vessels. As of the end of September, orders for hand-held vessels reached 12.09 million dwt, which was a decrease of 19.4% from the end of 2011, among which sea vessels accounted for 40.34 million corrected gross tons and exports accounted for 83.7% of the total.

According to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce, in the first nine months of this year, according to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce, from January to September this year, the country (excluding Shandong, Henan, Sichuan, and Qingdao) sold 57.308 million units of home appliances to the countryside, and achieved sales of 153.86 billion yuan. Yuan, calculated on a comparable basis, increased by 12.1% and 21.6% year-on-year respectively. In September, the nationwide sales of home appliances to the countryside were 6.442 million units, which achieved sales of 17.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.7% and 39.4%. As of the end of September 2012, the country has sold 275 million units of home appliances to the countryside and achieved sales of 659.76 billion yuan.