**Core Tip:** Industry insiders anticipate that once the country's detailed regulations on distributed generation are finalized, the future of distributed photovoltaic (PV) projects is expected to experience significant growth. However, following the previous round of overcapacity, a new wave of investment will likely be more cautious and strategic.
Recently, the National Energy Administration released the *Interim Measures for the Management of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Projects*. These measures encourage various power users, enterprises, and individuals to invest in and operate distributed PV projects. The policy also reinforces the monthly settlement of subsidies and grid connection, aiming to promote a more efficient and transparent system. Industry experts believe that with clearer guidelines, the number of distributed PV projects will rise sharply, but given past overcapacity issues, investors will approach this new phase with increased caution.
**Distributed Power Generation Rules Are Clear**
The Interim Measures emphasize that all types of power users, investment companies, energy service providers, and individuals are encouraged to participate in distributed PV projects. The operation model follows "self-generation for self-use, surplus power fed into the grid, and local consumption," supported by grid operators using advanced technology to ensure safe and efficient operations. The policy also promotes collaboration between project developers, power users, and grid companies to enhance the viability of distributed systems.
Industry observers highlight several key points in the rules, including provincial-level project filings, monthly grid settlements, and renewable energy incentives in development zones. These provisions signal a clear shift toward distributed PV as a central pillar of China’s solar strategy. In 2014, the transition from large-scale to distributed PV was seen as a major turning point.
Shen Wenwan, an analyst at Shenyin Wanguo, noted that while distributed PV projects faced many operational challenges before, the approval process has now become significantly faster. With simplified procedures, the scale of distributed projects is expected to grow rapidly in the coming years.
**Policy Stimulus Expected to Drive a Distributed Trend**
The National Energy Administration recently announced that the country’s total PV capacity is projected to increase by 10 million kilowatts. By the end of 2013, cumulative installed PV capacity reached 16.5 GW, with 5.7 GW being distributed and 10.8 GW being utility-scale. For 2014, the target is 11.8 GW, of which about 7.6 GW is expected to come from distributed projects. Policies are increasingly favoring distributed systems, with experts predicting that they could account for around 60% of new installations.
With the expansion of centralized solar farms in western China, challenges such as low demand and grid constraints have emerged. This has made distributed PV, which allows for local consumption and reduces transmission costs, a more sustainable path forward. Additionally, the cost issue that has long plagued large-scale PV is gradually being addressed. Meng Xianyu, vice chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, predicts that by 2020, PV will achieve grid parity without relying on government subsidies, transitioning to a market-driven model.
Despite these positive trends, experts remain cautious. While the 2014 PV installation targets seem achievable, risks such as weak policy support and unclear business models could hinder progress in meeting the distributed PV goals.
**Need to Be Alert to the Resurgence of Idle Capacity**
Although favorable policies have brought hope to the domestic PV industry, there are concerns about a potential resurgence of overcapacity. If the market becomes overly stimulated by policies and prices rise, the risk of another overexpansion cannot be ignored.
Wang Yingchun, CEO of Zhengxin Solar, noted that the recovery of the PV sector is largely driven by national policy support, including subsidies, tax rebates, and preferential grid connection rates. These policies have provided strong backing for the domestic PV market, particularly for distributed projects.
According to statistics, more than 300 PV industrial parks exist across over 600 cities in China, with many exceeding 10 billion yuan in investment. Local governments often implement policies that distort market dynamics. Wang Bohua, secretary-general of the Photovoltaic Industry Alliance, admitted that some idle capacity has already resumed operations, raising concerns about a possible return of supply-demand imbalances.
While some PV companies, especially smaller ones, went bankrupt during the two-year industry adjustment period, they can quickly restart if orders come in. However, overcapacity is closely linked to local governments’ pursuit of GDP growth through uncontrolled projects. To resolve this issue, it is essential to break entrenched interest groups, reduce government intervention, and let the market play a more decisive role. Encouraging mergers and acquisitions and optimizing resource allocation are critical steps toward a healthier industry.
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