The National Information Center's macroeconomic research team released a special report on China Securities Journal on the 8th, highlighting that China's economic growth is expected to slow down in the fourth quarter. The report forecasts that both the fourth-quarter GDP and the full-year GDP will grow by approximately 7.6%. Inflation is projected to rise slightly, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain relatively stable. The report emphasizes that several key factors are contributing to this outlook.
According to the analysis, the continued implementation of stable growth policies, increased corporate inventory rebuilding, and steady external demand are supporting economic stability. However, challenges such as limited capital availability for infrastructure projects, early-stage development of new real estate ventures, lingering overcapacity, and a high base from the previous year are acting as headwinds, slowing the pace of recovery.
The report estimates that the CPI for the fourth quarter will rise by 3.1%, and for the full year, it will reach 2.7%, well below the 3.5% target. Meanwhile, the PPI is expected to decline by 1.6% in the fourth quarter and about 2% for the full year, reflecting ongoing deflationary pressures in the industrial sector.
Looking ahead, the report warns of growing financial risks stemming from issues like "de-realization" and "off-balance-sheet circulation," which have led to an increase in hidden financial vulnerabilities. With overcapacity still a major issue, the willingness of private capital to invest in the real economy remains weak. Local government financing platforms continue to rely heavily on debt, further widening the gap between the virtual and real economies.
As Chinese companies face more mergers and bankruptcies, the risk of credit defaults on certain wealth management products is rising. These factors are contributing to a buildup of financial risks. Additionally, although the U.S. has delayed its exit from quantitative easing, it is expected to eventually tighten monetary policy, leading to a potential reversal of international capital flows. Emerging markets, including China, could face pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar, rising borrowing costs, and volatility in financial markets. All these elements are likely to amplify China’s underlying financial risks in the coming months.
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