The National Information Center's macroeconomic research team released a special report on China Securities Journal on the 8th, forecasting that China's economic growth will slow down in the fourth quarter. According to the report, GDP for both the fourth quarter and the full year is expected to rise by approximately 7.6%. Inflation is projected to rebound slightly, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain relatively stable.
The report highlights that ongoing stable growth policies, increased corporate inventory replenishment, and steady external demand are likely to support continued economic stability. However, challenges such as limited capital availability for infrastructure projects, early-stage developments in new real estate construction, sluggish overcapacity resolution, and a high base from the same period last year could hinder economic momentum.
It is estimated that the GDP growth for the fourth quarter and the full year will reach around 7.6%. Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise by 3.1% in the fourth quarter and 2.7% for the full year—well below the 3.5% target. The Producer Price Index (PPI), on the other hand, is anticipated to decline by 1.6% in the fourth quarter and about 2% for the entire year.
Looking ahead, the report warns of growing financial risks stemming from issues like "de-realization" and "off-balance-sheet circulation." These problems have contributed to rising financial vulnerabilities. With overcapacity still a challenge, social capital remains hesitant to invest in the real economy. Meanwhile, local government financing platforms continue to rely heavily on debt, further separating the virtual economy from the real one.
As Chinese companies face increasing mergers and bankruptcies, the risk of credit defaults on certain wealth management products is also rising. These factors combined are contributing to an upward trend in financial risks. Additionally, although the U.S. has delayed its exit from quantitative easing, it is expected to eventually reduce monetary stimulus. This could lead to a reversal of international capital flows, putting pressure on emerging markets like China.
The U.S. dollar is expected to appreciate, while financial markets, including stock markets, may experience volatility. Borrowing costs are also likely to rise. Taken together, these global and domestic factors are expected to further elevate China’s financial risks in the coming months.
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